Model purpose and limitations
Explore how changing market conditions, battery value and project costs affect PV-only and PV+BESS economics.
A screening tool for exploring project economics — not a market forecast or full battery dispatch optimisation.
How the model works, definitions & limitations
Market concepts
Base Price is the broad market price reference. PV Capture Rate expresses PV's relative market value, and PV Capture Price equals Base Price × PV Capture Rate. Power-Shifting Value is the historically modelled incremental value per discharged MWh from shifting power from lower- to higher-priced Day-Ahead periods under a defined battery configuration and operating logic. It is not simply an observed high-low market-price spread.
BESS reference method
Battery duration affects both physical utilisation and modeled market value. Changing duration changes modeled discharge energy and equivalent full cycles and also selects the corresponding Reference Power-Shifting Value. That value varies with operating mode, battery duration and BESS/PV AC ratio because those configurations change the modeled flexibility opportunity.
Reference Power-Shifting Value assumptions come from Steerpoint Energy's simplified historical optimisation model. The calculator itself does not perform full hourly dispatch optimisation.
Reference, scenario and custom cases
Historical Reference uses the canonical assumptions for the selected configuration. Scenario presets adjust the Reference Power-Shifting Value using the existing predefined factor and represent selected market conditions, not forecasts. In a custom case, manual market-driver inputs are authoritative; a manual Power-Shifting Value override remains until another Reference or Scenario is explicitly selected.
Additional BESS revenues
These manually entered revenues represent value outside the modeled Power-Shifting Value, such as ancillary services or additional intraday opportunities. They are not operationally simulated, may not be accessible in every project or market, and should not duplicate value already captured in Power-Shifting Value.
Break-even measures
BESS break-even — remaining revenue is the annual revenue still required after modeled energy-shifting uplift and entered Additional BESS revenues, expressed in EUR/MW BESS/a; it is not a Power-Shifting Value metric. Project break-even is the remaining additional annual revenue required for the combined PV+BESS project after all revenues already included in the selected case.
Model boundaries
The calculator does not model full hourly dispatch optimisation, future market forecasts or probabilities, detailed degradation dispatch, operational ancillary-service optimisation, project-specific grid constraints, or commercial and contractual revenue-sharing structures.
WHY PV CAPTURE IS CHANGING
Historical intraday market development
Average Day-ahead prices by hour show how the market value of solar-heavy hours has evolved across historical periods.
Historical average daily profiles - not a forecast
Solar-heavy hours can trade differently from the daily average, which is why PV Capture Rate matters for PV merchant economics. Base Price describes the broader market level; the chart shows the hourly timing behind that distinction.
Selected reference: R12M 2026-07
DE-LU · Europe/Berlin · pv_site_01
Lines show average historical Day-ahead price in EUR/MWh. The Warm Sand area shows average PV output for the selected reference only, on a separate axis in MWh/MW AC per average hour.
Historical profile data Accessible table alternative · 24 hourly intervals per period
| Period | Hour interval | Average Day-ahead price (EUR/MWh) | Average PV output (MWh/MW AC per average hour) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 00–01 | 86.62 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 01–02 | 81.00 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 02–03 | 77.48 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 03–04 | 74.95 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 04–05 | 76.15 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 05–06 | 83.80 | 0.0004 |
| 2023 | 06–07 | 101.30 | 0.0085 |
| 2023 | 07–08 | 116.23 | 0.0448 |
| 2023 | 08–09 | 115.30 | 0.1342 |
| 2023 | 09–10 | 105.18 | 0.2358 |
| 2023 | 10–11 | 93.79 | 0.3142 |
| 2023 | 11–12 | 85.26 | 0.3773 |
| 2023 | 12–13 | 76.44 | 0.4088 |
| 2023 | 13–14 | 70.25 | 0.4216 |
| 2023 | 14–15 | 69.52 | 0.3954 |
| 2023 | 15–16 | 76.10 | 0.3221 |
| 2023 | 16–17 | 88.65 | 0.2296 |
| 2023 | 17–18 | 106.64 | 0.1526 |
| 2023 | 18–19 | 122.24 | 0.0819 |
| 2023 | 19–20 | 131.56 | 0.0285 |
| 2023 | 20–21 | 128.03 | 0.0038 |
| 2023 | 21–22 | 115.45 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 22–23 | 105.72 | 0.0000 |
| 2023 | 23–24 | 93.38 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 00–01 | 73.04 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 01–02 | 68.11 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 02–03 | 64.99 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 03–04 | 63.37 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 04–05 | 64.40 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 05–06 | 70.21 | 0.0003 |
| 2024 | 06–07 | 85.83 | 0.0090 |
| 2024 | 07–08 | 100.16 | 0.0482 |
| 2024 | 08–09 | 95.33 | 0.1324 |
| 2024 | 09–10 | 80.81 | 0.2276 |
| 2024 | 10–11 | 67.45 | 0.3008 |
| 2024 | 11–12 | 58.21 | 0.3580 |
| 2024 | 12–13 | 50.25 | 0.3937 |
| 2024 | 13–14 | 45.87 | 0.4093 |
| 2024 | 14–15 | 47.11 | 0.3772 |
| 2024 | 15–16 | 56.21 | 0.3042 |
| 2024 | 16–17 | 72.37 | 0.2170 |
| 2024 | 17–18 | 92.98 | 0.1406 |
| 2024 | 18–19 | 108.00 | 0.0771 |
| 2024 | 19–20 | 118.53 | 0.0268 |
| 2024 | 20–21 | 117.15 | 0.0035 |
| 2024 | 21–22 | 100.92 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 22–23 | 88.86 | 0.0000 |
| 2024 | 23–24 | 78.00 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 00–01 | 88.07 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 01–02 | 83.54 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 02–03 | 80.94 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 03–04 | 79.75 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 04–05 | 81.00 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 05–06 | 86.99 | 0.0004 |
| 2025 | 06–07 | 101.71 | 0.0084 |
| 2025 | 07–08 | 116.04 | 0.0488 |
| 2025 | 08–09 | 110.19 | 0.1382 |
| 2025 | 09–10 | 91.74 | 0.2400 |
| 2025 | 10–11 | 72.97 | 0.3124 |
| 2025 | 11–12 | 60.54 | 0.3729 |
| 2025 | 12–13 | 51.59 | 0.4036 |
| 2025 | 13–14 | 47.43 | 0.4102 |
| 2025 | 14–15 | 50.96 | 0.3867 |
| 2025 | 15–16 | 63.44 | 0.3223 |
| 2025 | 16–17 | 80.07 | 0.2345 |
| 2025 | 17–18 | 103.49 | 0.1491 |
| 2025 | 18–19 | 123.51 | 0.0823 |
| 2025 | 19–20 | 135.27 | 0.0288 |
| 2025 | 20–21 | 130.93 | 0.0037 |
| 2025 | 21–22 | 115.75 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 22–23 | 104.12 | 0.0000 |
| 2025 | 23–24 | 93.18 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 00–01 | 96.65 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 01–02 | 91.82 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 02–03 | 88.97 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 03–04 | 87.99 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 04–05 | 89.15 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 05–06 | 94.71 | 0.0004 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 06–07 | 108.03 | 0.0090 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 07–08 | 119.45 | 0.0520 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 08–09 | 111.85 | 0.1459 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 09–10 | 93.41 | 0.2517 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 10–11 | 75.25 | 0.3264 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 11–12 | 61.37 | 0.3918 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 12–13 | 51.16 | 0.4139 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 13–14 | 46.26 | 0.4158 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 14–15 | 50.30 | 0.3896 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 15–16 | 63.80 | 0.3269 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 16–17 | 82.84 | 0.2435 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 17–18 | 107.20 | 0.1570 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 18–19 | 128.75 | 0.0869 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 19–20 | 143.94 | 0.0300 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 20–21 | 142.49 | 0.0037 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 21–22 | 128.50 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 22–23 | 114.02 | 0.0000 |
| Rolling 12 months (R12M 2026-07) | 23–24 | 101.25 | 0.0000 |
EXPLORE MARKET CONDITIONS
Historical market development vs Selected Case
See where the selected market assumptions sit relative to all available historical observations for this configuration.
Selected conditions — not a forecast
Calculate a case to compare selected conditions with historical market development.